07 Vestur 1–3 B36 Torshavn: Result & Stats

07 Vestur

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

B36 Torshavn

E. Jacobsen 67'

P. Petersen 57', 35', 30'

4/7/2025

Løgmanssteypid · Round of 16á Dungasandi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

07 Vestur29%

×Draw22%

B36 Torshavn49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

07 VesturExpected goals in this matchB36 Torshavn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.00

07 Vestur

1.50

B36 Torshavn

2.00

B36 Torshavn creates 33% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.57

creates per match

2.44

1.57

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

07 Vestur

1.57

B36 Torshavn

2.44

allows per match

07 Vestur

1.57

B36 Torshavn

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

07 Vestur+0.00on par

B36 Torshavn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

07 Vestur ↓

B36 Torshavn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

07 Vestur or draw

51%

07 Vestur or B36 Torshavn

78%

Draw or B36 Torshavn

71%

Winning margin

07 Vestur wins by 2+

13%

B36 Torshavn wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

07 Vestur 1+ goals

78%

07 Vestur 2+ goals

44%

07 Vestur 3+ goals

19%

B36 Torshavn 1+ goals

86%

B36 Torshavn 2+ goals

59%

B36 Torshavn 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

07 Vestur (draw refunded)

37%

B36 Torshavn (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

07 Vestur at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

B36 Torshavn away — creates 2.44, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

07 Vestur attack 1.57 + B36 Torshavn defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

B36 Torshavn attack 2.44 + 07 Vestur defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

07 Vestur scores more

29%

level

22%

B36 Torshavn scores more

49%

B36 Torshavn at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "B36 Torshavn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

P. Petersen

34'

35'

P. Petersen

45'

J. Mouritsen

46'

J. Samuelsen← R. Helgason

57'

P. Petersen

59'

E. Jacobsen← J. Mouritsen

65'

B. Heinesen← P. Petersen

65'

J. Joensen← H. Agnarsson

67'

E. Jacobsen

74'

T. Eliasen← J. Gullfoss

86'

R. Samuelsen

90'

H. Gudmundsen← D. Fróðason

90'

J. Nordendal← C. Gedsted

90'

L. Gardar← M. Jakobsen

07

B36

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Brimsvík

46'▲J. Samuelsen←▼R. Helgason

59'▲E. Jacobsen←▼J. Mouritsen

90'▲H. Gudmundsen←▼D. Fróðason

90'▲J. Nordendal←▼C. Gedsted

90'▲L. Gardar←▼M. Jakobsen

07 Vestur substitutes

SamuelsenJacobsenGudmundsenNordendalGardarSteigNattestad

Manager: J. Joensen

65'▲B. Heinesen←▼P. Petersen

65'▲J. Joensen←▼H. Agnarsson

74'▲T. Eliasen←▼J. Gullfoss

B36 Torshavn substitutes

HeinesenJoensenEliasenJørgensenEnevoldsenHellisdalHansen

Match Recap: 07 Vestur vs B36 Torshavn

B36 Torshavn beat 07 Vestur 3-1 in Løgmanssteypid on April 7, 2025.

Goals: P. Petersen (30', 35', 57'), E. Jacobsen (67').

The match was played at á Dungasandi in Sørvágur, Vágar.

07 Vestur vs B36 Torshavn — Løgmanssteypid 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: 07 Vestur vs B36 Torshavn